The £4billion battle for live TV coverage of the Premier League is set to be a three-way contest.
The dominance of *** and BT Sport is likely to be challenged by Eurosport owners Discovery Communications when bidding for 2016-19 closes on Friday.
The fierce competition for the 168 live games per season, which are split into seven packages, could set the price for a single match at an amazing £8million.
There will also be an increase on the current £2bn for overseas deals, plus the £204m agreed with the BBC for Match of the Day. *** are expected to pour all their resources into retaining at least four of their prime first-pick packages and BT will want an increase on their current deal which gives them 38 live games per season.
Qatar-based beIN Sport, the richest TV network in the world, could also make a bid.
Who will be bidding in the auction for domestic live rights to the Premier League?
*** and BT, who currently share coverage, will both be involved again. They paid £3.018billion between them for the 2013-16 rights. That is expected to rise for 2016-19, and potentially soar to £4bn if other serious bidders enter the auction, such as US-based giant Discovery Communications and Qatar-owned beIN Sports.
Will *** lose matches this time?
It’s feasible. Under the current deals, *** have 116 live games per season, and BT have the other 38 games, for a total of 154 live games per season, which were sold in seven packages.
The auction for 2016-19 also has seven packages for sale but more games overall. Five packages have 28 games per season and two packages have 14 games. About a dozen of the extra games will be shown on Friday nights.
Any one broadcaster will be allowed a maximum of 126 games per season — or four ‘big’ packages plus one ‘small’ package. That’s what *** currently has and will want to keep. They will almost certainly be willing to pay more than the £2.28bn over three years they paid last time.
But will another major player splash the cash and reduce what *** have? BT have deep pockets. They spent £897m on Champions League and Europa League live rights for three seasons starting 2015-16. They won’t want less than the 38 PL games they have now and can be expected to bid strongly.
The real unknown is whether Discovery and beIN Sports will come in with blockbuster bids. That could blow the market open and send prices soaring, again.
Why is there such fierce competition for Premier League games?
A generation ago virtually nobody in Britain paid to watch TV over and above their licence fee. Now around 60 per cent of households (or 16m homes) pay for a subscription whether ***, ****** or BT.
Increasingly, the battle between these communications giants is for the ‘triple play’ market (phone, internet and TV from one source) and the ‘quad play’ market (which adds mobile phones).
They want you to get all your services from them. Live Premier League matches are being used in an attempt to influence your choice. With millions of people paying £600-plus a year for these services, it’s a massive industry.
Will Premier League football cost me more from 2016-17? Will I need more subscriptions?
It’s feasible that *** and BT will share the rights again in broadly the same way they do now, and fans won’t notice any difference to pricing. But if a third or even fourth broadcaster gets involved more subscriptions will be needed, almost certainly at extra cost. Although if *** lose a lot of games they may have to reduce prices to keep customers.
Will the clubs get richer?
Oh yes. The total broadcasting pot for the 2013-16 period was more than £5.5bn, mostly from domestic live rights (£3.018bn) and foreign rights (£2.23bn) with highlights, near-live rights and mobile rights on top.
The 2016-19 total pot is expected to be close to £7bn with £4bn from domestic rights. The vast bulk of the cash will end up being split among the Premier League clubs.
Will ticket prices go down?
You’re having a laugh, aren’t you? Almost certainly not and not by much in any case.
Many Premier League games are sold out or nearly sold out, even though ticket prices are the most expensive in the world. While the demand is there, clubs will charge what they can.
The only rider to that is that the Premier League hierarchy would like to see clubs offer more cheap deals, particularly to away fans and younger people. It remains possible that an increase in TV money will allow more subsidies for schemes like this... but don’t bank on it.
